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2023年上游石油和天然氣決策投資可能增加
點擊次數(shù)：320 發(fā)表時間：2023-4-18
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中國石化新聞網(wǎng)
中國石化新聞網(wǎng)訊 據(jù)鉆機地帶4月14日報道，在本周發(fā)給鉆機地帶的一份聲明中，咨詢機構(gòu)伍德麥肯茲表示，根據(jù)該公司的最新分析，今年上游油氣金融投資決策(FID)可能會增加。
該聲明強調(diào)，到2023年，1850億美元的總投資和270億桶石油當(dāng)量的儲量將被批準(zhǔn)，并指出，國有石油公司(noc)將控制今年最大的投資機會，“利用巨大的已發(fā)現(xiàn)資源，同時擁有最低的單位成本”。
該聲明透露，到2023年，項目將需要平均每桶49美元的原油才能產(chǎn)生15%的盈虧平衡內(nèi)部回報率(IRR)，并補充說，加權(quán)平均IRR為19%，即每桶60美元，將是自2018年以來的最低水平。
伍德麥肯茲副總裁兼上游分析主管Fraser McKay在聲明中表示：“在油氣項目上實現(xiàn)FID比以前更難，但由于2022年批準(zhǔn)的項目比預(yù)期的要少，我們相信今年的FID活動將略有上升，40個最可行的項目中有30多個可能達到這一里程碑?！?
伍德麥肯茲上游研究首席分析師Greg Roddick在聲明中表示：“短周期和小規(guī)模海上項目在回報和回報方面都將表現(xiàn)出色?！?
他補充說：“當(dāng)涉及內(nèi)部收益率時，長壽命液化天然氣項目會受到影響，但它們所擁有的吸引力和穩(wěn)定未來現(xiàn)金流將具有戰(zhàn)略重要意義。”
McKay在聲明中強調(diào)，大多數(shù)運營商將保持紀(jì)律，碳減排仍將是許多FID項目的關(guān)鍵考慮部分。他補充說，國際石油公司將主要專注于成本更高但回報更高的深水開發(fā)，但他強調(diào)，“所有人都將敏銳地意識到石油和天然氣項目的碳排放限制將如何在公共領(lǐng)域發(fā)揮作用，以及相關(guān)排放將受到何種審查”。
Roddick在聲明中說：“有利的深水石油和大陸架項目將在排放方面表現(xiàn)更好，但液化天然氣、酸性天然氣和一些陸上項目需要采取緩解措施。”
伍德麥肯茲發(fā)言人告訴鉆井地帶網(wǎng)站，在2022年，該公司總共列出了30個FID項目。該發(fā)言人透露，這些項目總共投資1400億美元，將開發(fā)183億桶石油當(dāng)量的儲量。
上游的魔力
今年1月，在伍德麥肯茲網(wǎng)站上發(fā)布的一份聲明中，McKay表示，上游石油和天然氣“在2022年重獲魔力”。
“創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的現(xiàn)金流恢復(fù)了信心，修復(fù)了資產(chǎn)負債表。對許多人來說，對即將到來的未來感到興奮。”
他繼續(xù)說：“當(dāng)然有經(jīng)濟上的激勵，但提供安全和負擔(dān)得起的能源的新目標(biāo)感，特別是進入緊張的歐洲天然氣市場，將重新激發(fā)動力?！?
雷斯塔能源上個月在其網(wǎng)站上發(fā)布的一份聲明中宣布，未來兩年，海上石油和天然氣行業(yè)將實現(xiàn)十年來最高的增長，“新項目投資將達到2140億美元”。
該公司在3月份的聲明中表示：“研究表明，年度未開發(fā)地區(qū)的資本支出在2022年突破了1000億美元門檻，并將在2023年再次突破這一門檻，這是自2012年和2013年以來連續(xù)兩年首次突破。”
今年1月，雷斯塔能源在其網(wǎng)站上發(fā)表的一份聲明中指出，預(yù)計全球石油和天然氣承包商市場將在2025年達到1萬億美元的峰值，并在此后幾年保持在高水平。
雷斯塔能源在一份聲明中表示：“得益于液化、運輸和再氣化天然氣行業(yè)中游部分的強勁增長，在2022—2028年期間，石油和天然氣的總體支出平均每年將保持在9200億美元以上?！?
壽琳玲 編譯自 鉆機地帶
原文如下：
Upstream Oil and Gas FIDs Will Likely Increase in 2023
In a statement sent to Rigzone this week, Wood Mackenzie outlined that, according to new analysis from the company, upstream oil and gas financial investment decisions (FID) will likely increase this year.
The statement, which highlighted that $185 billion of total investment and 27 billion barrels of oil equivalent of reserves are up for sanction in 2023, noted that national oil companies (NOCs) will control the largest investment opportunities this year, “taking advantage of huge, discovered resources, while boasting the lowest unit costs”.
In 2023, projects will require an average of $49 per barrel of crude to generate a breakeven 15 percent internal rate of return (IRR), the statement revealed, adding that a weighted average IRR of 19 percent, at $60 per barrel, would be the lowest level since 2018.
“Achieving FID on oil and gas projects is harder than it used to be, but with fewer sanctioned in 2022 than was expected, we believe we will see a slight uptick in activity this year, with over 30 of the 40 most viable projects likely to reach this milestone,” Fraser McKay, Wood Mackenzie’s Vice President and Head of Upstream Analysis, said in the statement.
Greg Roddick, the Principal Analyst of Upstream Research at WoodMac, said in the statement that “short-cycle and small-scale offshore projects will outperform in terms of both paybacks and returns”.
“Long-life liquified natural gas projects are compromised when it comes to IRRs, but their attractive and stable future cash flows will be strategically important,” he added.
McKay highlighted in the statement that most operators will remain disciplined and that carbon mitigation will remain a key part of many FID projects. He added that international oil companies will be focusing largely on higher-cost but higher-return deepwater developments but stressed that “all will be acutely aware of how oil and gas project sanctions are playing out in the public domain and the scrutiny to which their associated emissions will be subject”.
“Advantaged deepwater oil and shelf projects will outperform on emissions, but LNG, sour gas and some onshore projects require mitigation measures,” Roddick said in the statement.
A WoodMac spokesperson told Rigzone that in 2022, the company listed a total of 30 FIDs. These have combined investment of $140 billion and will develop reserves of 18.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent, the spokesperson revealed.
Upstream Mojo
In a statement posted on WoodMac’s website back in January this year, McKay stated that upstream oil and gas “got its mojo back in 2022”.
“Record cash flows restored confidence and repaired balance sheets. For many, there is excitement about the year ahead,” he said in that statement.
“There are economic incentives of course, but a renewed sense of purpose to provide secure and affordable energy – particularly into tight European gas markets – will revitalize motivation,” McKay continued.
In a statement posted on Rystad Energy’s site last month, Rystad announced that the offshore oil and gas sector is set for the highest growth in a decade in the next two years, “with $214 billion of new project investments lined up”.
“Rystad Energy research shows that annual greenfield capital expenditure broke the $100 billion threshold in 2022 and will break it again in 2023 – the first breach for two straight years since 2012 and 2013,” the company said in the statement back in March.
Back in January, Rystad noted in a statement published on its site that it expects the global market for oil and gas contractors to rise to a peak of $1 trillion in 2025 and remain at high levels for several years thereafter.
“Helped by strong growth in the midstream part of the industry to liquefy, transport, and re-gasify natural gas, overall oil and gas spending will stay above $920 billion annually on average for the 2022-2028 period,” Rystad said in that statement.